The
Arab opposition blew a golden opportunity to move their countries toward
democracy in the last decade. They were corrupt, failed, authoritarian,
lacked political programs, and were not a convincing alternative for the people
or international supporters.
Meanwhile, the Syrian dilemma in the MENA has been the region's worst crisis ever, with all occupied foreign-armed powers encountering each other, all types of armed non-state actors operating, and Syria suffering from one of the world's worst humanitarian crises.
Peace
in the MENA region should initiate with peace in Syria. The World Body,
international law scholars, and human rights advocates have worked hard to
establish laws that forbid governments from using violence against their
citizens and allow international intervention to protect civilians. They
established (R2P) specifically for this purpose, on the grounds of legitimizing
international intervention to protect civilians.
Nonetheless,
the Syrian case showed that enforcing that rule has been ineffective over the
last decade. As a result, these efforts necessitate both practical and
theoretical assessments, and the Syrian situation still necessitates an
immediate and permanent international solution.
What
happened in Syria would be repeated in many Arab countries, leading many states
to be failed in MENA.
Failed
states such as Syria, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Lebanon, and Yemen open the door to
more foreign intervention and non-state actors, threatening the future of the
MENA region. According to theories, the failure effects extend to a radius of
800km and last for more than 50 years.
The
Global Peace Index 2022 edition ensures that the problem surrounds the Arab
Peninsula, Egypt, and the MENA region as a whole. Many of these failed states
(in red) will remain in the same state for decades, transferring their problems
to neighbors or calling in outsider powers to solve them. One of Egypt's, Saudi
Arabia's, and the UAE's top priorities may be to address this issue in order to
save their future.
To
achieve any kind of peace in the Middle East, Iran must first be driven out of
the region. True peace could not be imagined otherwise. This is the mission of
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt. When other regional powers
are unconcerned, or have their own agendas and interests with Iran,
With the decline of Arab influence in the MENA in favor of Iran (primarily) and Turkey, their lebensraum (Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, and Libya) became failed states, dangerous, and occupied by regional powers, and that lebensraum became other powers' lebensraum, which they are now attempting to expand to include more Arab territories (eg. Iran toward Jordan).
While the Suadi and Egupt are closer to these failed states, the UAE is a safe haven away from the region's chaos.
It
has immense opportunities, making itself the most active Arab actor in the
short term. Essentially, UAE needs to upgrade its political methods and tools
to the next level (a regionality plan/level). That could happen because of such
continuous spaces in the regional strategic vacuum.
Arab countries now have a few options. The most important is that they return to their original roles as soon as possible.
Meanwhile,
killing al-first Qaeda's generation is an effective method to undermine its
structure. That is far from adequate. It can easily assign a new leader.
Otherwise, what al-Qaeda does benefit from is an appealing ideology, which, due
to structural factors, finds its primary audience in the vast MENA and Africa.
If
global powers are serious about counterterrorism, they should address the
following factors: tyranny, injustice, failure, hopelessness, and foreign interventions
ignorance, which have created a suitable environment conducive to populist
rhetoric that has morphed into various shapes of extremism, including al-Qaeda.
If these factors continue, could expect a new wave of terrorism.
To
achieve long-term peace in MENA
We
need to surround the forces of destruction parties, which are:
-
Regimes that have failed
criminally.
-
Foreign intervening (occupying
powers).
-
Oppositions that have
failed.
-
Militias operating across
borders.
-
Terrorism.
-
Populist parties
This
means that most of the region is under threat, and the fact that this situation
provides an ideal environment for extremism. That comes with a sharp decline in
resources, opportunities, and the environment.
Finally,
MENA requires a "risk index" based on regional priorities to forecast
the effects of (among others):
-
Global Warming.
-
Terrorism.
-
Popular Movements.
-
Foreign Interventions.
-
Non-State Actors.
-
Economics Trends
-
Ethnic and Sectarian Disruption.
-
Food and Energy Deficiency.
-
Inter-State Conflicts.
ABD ALQADER NANAA