Geopolitical Shocks
Another world-shaking, world-reordering war in Europe: Russia's invasion of Ukraine;
Brewing fears of war on an even greater scale in Asia: Taiwan;
International order liquidity, its transition into a new order, and the re-building of alliances that follow.
Rogue State Problems: Iran and North Korea;
Failed states surrounded and centered in MENA;
Terrorist groups that have spread throughout failed states;
China is rapidly aging. A coronation in China and political upheaval across the democratic world.
Growing geopolitical friction between China and the United States.
The increasing internationalization of armed conflicts.
Global Economy
Deglobalization;
Supply chain problems and Supply chocks;
High prices of energy, which causes the worst energy crisis in a half-century with the worst food crisis in over a decade;
The world may very well be entering an extended period of global recession, because of three important factors: the impact on commodity prices of Russia's war against Ukraine, slowing Chinese growth as a result of Beijing's zero-COVID policy, and problems in the Chinese property sector, and sharply tightening US interest rates;
Massive spending programs implanted around the world, high deficits, and very low-interest rates (as stimulation) led to the current inflation. Climate-induced catastrophes and emboldened movements to mitigate and adapt to them: A surge in climate adaptation curtails progress on cutting emissions, locking in at least 1.5 degrees of warming;
A less acute but still-raging, still-hugely disruptive pandemic, which comes with a pandemic-driven recession.